October 2024

The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan has been announced. And it was a bombshell.

The Immigration Levels Plan must be reported to Parliament by November 1^st of each year. In it, the government sets out its target admissions for each immigration category. To assist with long-term planning, levels are set for three years, but each year, the levels can be adjusted despite what was set for years 2 and 3 previously. So, the numbers for 2025 and 2026, as set out in the 2024-2026 plan, were not set in stone.

Immigration Minister Miller hinted that a reduction in the levels was under consideration. What no one expected was the sheer drop in numbers – 21% over the next three years from previous targets.

Here are some examples of how the levels plan will change for 2025:

	2025 levels in the 2024-2026 Plan	2025 levels in the 2025-2027 plan
Provincial nomination programs (all provinces combined)	120,000	55,000
Spouses, Partners and Children	84,000	70,000
Protected Persons in Canada and dependents abroad	29,000	20,000
Federal High Skilled	117,500	Federal Economic Priorities 41,700 (category-based Express Entry draws) In-Canada Focus (primarily Canadian Experience Class) 82,980 Overall total: 124,680

Further cuts are in store for 2026-2027. For example, the Spouses, Partners and Children category will be reduced further to 65,500 in 2026.

Despite the best intentions, there are categories of immigration that the Canadian government cannot control. For example, it cannot control the number of Canadians who choose to marry non-Canadians. It also cannot control the number of individuals who claim refugee protection from within Canada; such claims are based on events in other countries. The government is simply creating a backlog and increasing processing times by capping the numbers on these categories. If 65,501 people apply to sponsor their spouse or child in 2026, application number 65,501 will simply be shoved off to 2027; the government cannot deny a sponsorship application because it has hit its numbers for the year. The category for protected persons is the same. Deciding who should be granted refugee protection in Canada is the purview of the Immigration and Refugee Board, not IRCC. Once a person is granted protection, they are entitled to apply for permanent residence, including for their family members abroad (spouses, partners, and dependent children.) IRCC must process their applications, but it can choose how long to let them languish in the processing queue. Already, protected persons have waited at least a year, often much longer, for their refugee hearing. Once accepted, currently, they must wait another 53 months (that’s 4.41 years!) for their family members to come to Canada. Imagine that number increasing exponentially.

I don’t see any room in the new levels plan for ‘general draws’ in Express Entry for the Federal Skilled Worker Program. Foreign workers outside of Canada will only be accepted if they fit one of the categories: health care occupations, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency. However, overall, the ‘Federal High Skilled’ quota is increasing from the previous target.

The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan also introduces targets for workers and international students for the first time. International student caps were introduced earlier this year. No more than 305,900 international students will be admitted in each of the next three years. The number of temporary foreign workers is set at 367,750 for 2025, will drop to 210,700 in 2026, and then increase slightly to 237,700 in 2027. However, that presumes that numbers won’t change in the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan (which may be introduced by a new government pending the outcome of the next election). Overall, Canada’s population will decrease, with 445,901 fewer temporary workers and international students in 2025 and 445,662 fewer in 2026.  The intention is to have no more than 5% of the Canadian population comprised of temporary workers and students. Still, since asylum claimants are entitled to work permits, and since the government cannot control how many people claim asylum (as it is a right under international law), their 5% target is not really within their control.

The Backgrounder to the Immigration Levels Plans states the goal of the cuts: This year’s levels plan reduces permanent resident targets starting in 2025 and forecasts decreases for the following two years, resulting in a pause in population growth in the short term to achieve well-managed, sustainable growth and economic prosperity for the long term.

Unsurprisingly, the change has been widely denounced. The Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association released a statement condemning the cuts, saying that Canada’s need for immigrants has not changed with our aging population and decreasing birth rate. The Canadian Council for Refugees accuses Canada of betraying refugees, stating that the increased waiting period for family members to come to Canada will rob children of their futures and destroy families, and that “People will lose their lives.” This is not rhetoric. I happened to one of my clients this year. Only he could get a visa to Canada; he had to leave his wife and children behind, though they were also in danger. His refugee claim was accepted, and he applied for permanent residence, including his wife and children in his application. His wife was recently murdered by the same individuals who had threatened him and caused him to flee. Had I managed to get them to Canada sooner, the children would not have lost their mother.

Further, without question, many of the close to million temporary residents whose status will expire in the next three years will not leave Canada. Canada is overly optimistic, or perhaps simply naive, to think a policy change will be enough to convince people to leave as required. When living in Canada without status is less precarious than life at home, people will have no incentive to leave. The Canada Border Services Agency will be hard-pressed to round up and remove the close to 1,000,000 people expected to leave in the next two years. A rise in the number of individuals without status in Canada is a problem the government is creating for itself. Pundits suggest that Canada would be better served by extending the legal status of those in Canada and converting them to permanent residence over time rather than making such drastic moves. It will be up to voters in the next election to decide whether they agree with the government’s approach.